Welcome
How soon will the US and China be at war over Taiwan? There is no settled consensus. Next week or month? Two or three years from now? Or by 2029, or 2032? President Xi of China promised to regain Taiwan within his lifetime. He is now 72 (January 2005). This speculation fosters a climate of war that makes war appear inevitable. No single war is inevitable. We are drifting towards war because there is still a serious deterrence and strategizing problem despite all the West has done so far. A war between China and the US is not inevitable. The most problematic issues, which we label as wildcards, are the PRC’s willingness and ability to bear the costs of war, if it has the vision and perseverance to discover the truth. While there is some bravado and hype about the cost of war, we are not yet at a turning point where the CCP elites have a consensus to go to war against the US otherwise there would be war now.
Many factors are intensifying the risk of war between the US and China. Those risks can be managed if the right approach is taken. What is required is a tough approach to deterrents, enablers and wildcards.
The Soviet collapse in 1989 helped allay the fears of a nuclear nightmare. But, with the rise of China since the mid-1990s (using western technology, finance and foreign direct investment), the world has watched the emergence of a new nuclear superpower seeking to replace the US and dominate the world. The nuclear nightmare has been reborn and the world again seeks to calm its fears. Key flashpoints between Russia and the US are in the Ukraine, the Baltics and the Middle East, whereas for China and the US the main flashpoint is Taiwan. The focus is to assess how to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan given China’s potential to go nuclear if it is losing the war.
Dr. Caragata’s response to this potential global catastrophe is to re-evaluate military strategy as being equally applicable to the road to war and the road to peace. The book takes a hard look at 29 factors that are war drivers or peace drivers or both. Those factors are divided into 4 categories: Deterrents, Enablers, Wildcards and (low probability, high impact) Black Swans. The DEW System is linked to the impact of planning traps, behavioral traps and psychological traps to prepare for or deter war.
Dr. Caragata is an expert in country risk analysis and corporate risk analysis stemming from his work as Senior Economist International at Toronto-Dominion Bank in 1983- 1986 and head of the country risk analysis group.
In 2001 he founded RapidRatings (RR) in Australia, the world’s first software-based corporate credit rating agency. He was the architect of RR’s software. In 2007 he and his new partners shifted the firm to New York. RR was sold to private equity investors for $200+ million in February 2022.
He is the author of 5 previous books including Business Early Warning Systems: Corporate Governance for the New Millennium (Butterworths, 1999) and National Resources and International Bargaining Power (Queens University, Canada, 1984). He has applied military strategy and tactics, game theory and psychological warfare to the negotiation process since 1980. His PhD is from the University of Toronto (1981).
Motivation
“Will China Invade Taiwan?”
“Information and knowledge are the thermonuclear competitive weapons of our time. Knowledge is more powerful than natural resources, big factories, or fat bankrolls. In industry after industry, success comes to the companies that have the best information, or wield it most effectively—not necessarily the companies with the most muscle”
Thomas Stewart, 1997, Intellectual Capital: The New Wealth of Organizations, New York: Doubleday p 1
“The U.S. military lacks the ability to quickly deploy personnel that can fend off malevolent actors trying to shape public opinion and must act now to build up such “information forces,” (Nov 17, 2023 Pentagon strategy.1 Conquering the information ecosystem from social-media chatter to government propaganda is increasingly important as mis- and disinformation proliferate and world powers… try to influence foreign affairs from afar….2 Information warfare represents a persuasive brew of public outreach, offensive and defensive electronic capabilities, and cyber operations; it combines data awareness and manipulation to gain an advantage before, during and after major events.“…Our ability to gain and sustain information advantages at the times and places of our choosing are critical to successful operations in the information space. Make no mistake: America’s competitors and enemies are moving quickly in the information environment, hoping to offset our enduring strategic advantages elsewhere.”
U.S.Defense Secretary: Pentagon seeks to rapidly build up information-warfare force, Nov 23, 20233
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Sun Tzu
“War is 90 per cent information”
Napoleon Bonaparte
“The most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.”
Benjamin Disraeli